Apparently there’s some popular interest in “change.”

January 4, 2008

I’m on vacation in beautiful, sunny, marginally above freezing Florida right now, so I’m not going to write much, but I wanted to say a little something about Iowa.

I know it’s a big deal that Obama won, and that Hilary took third, and that Huckabee won, and that Giuliani finished well behind Ron! Paul!, but let’s not get too carried away here. There are quite a few primaries ahead of us, and a lot can happen in the next few weeks. If your guy or gal did well in Iowa, of course that’s a good thing, and if your guy or gal did poorly in Iowa, of course that’s a bad thing. What it isn’t, either way, is conclusive.

Our current president got WALLOPED in Iowa by Bob Dole in 2000. Suffice it to say that Bob Dole has spent the last 8 years pushing Viagra, not ordering retaliatory strikes on insurgents.

We’ve got some big primaries coming up in the next few weeks, and the picture will be a lot clearer once they’re over. In the mean time, don’t give up on anybody. Except for Biden, Dodd, Kucinich, Thomson, and some guy named Hunter.

Now that that’s out of the way, it’s time for some uninformed speculation!

Until last night, I didn’t really think Obama had a chance at this thing. Clearly, I wasn’t getting a full squeeze out of my mind grapes, because there’s something big going on here. Even if this guy doesn’t end up with the nomination, he’s forced the Democratic party to start blathering about change and to take actual stands beyond being against the GOP and W’s legacy. Whether you like the Dems or not, their articulating an actual policy platform can only be a good thing. I think Clinton is screwed, because she can’t go left of Obama and the country (well, Iowa) didn’t seem to respond too well to her being right of Obama. If being a middle-of-the-road candidate fails in Iowa, how do you think it’s going to play in California?

On the other side, obviously Huckabee is psyched. McCain doesn’t care how he did. Ron Paul did respectably. Giuliani was never going to win, but the sheer magnitude of his failure is a problem. Thomson slept through the whole thing, and is a non-entity at this point. Romney is in some trouble. Again, it’s just one state, but for Romney to lose in a state that seemed like the linchpin in his campaign strategy is a significant setback. And clearly he can’t just spend his way out of this one.

Prediction time!

Obama will edge Edwards for the Democratic nomination. Huckabee will outlast Romney’s checkbook for the GOP. The debates will be the most entertaining in many years (although I don’t expect anyone’s lesbian daughters to get mentioned, sadly).

I think any of the top three Democratic candidates will beat any of the Republican candidates in the general election. Although McCain might make things interesting.

Posted in Politics/Law